QualityDipStocks / Technology · IT services
Agilysys AGYS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $86.65−27%
- Market Value
- $116.11price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.38
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 9% below its 52-week high (Nov 14), but the business held up: revenue +14.9%, earnings per share +81.0%, free cash flow +42.8%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +14.9%, earnings per share +81.0%, free cash flow +42.8%), others slipped. The price is 9% below its 52-week high.
The price is 9% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($129.50, Nov 14) the price assumed about 29%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($62.19, Apr 10) about 14%; today about 21%. The last 3 years delivered 36%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 36%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $129.50Nov 14 | $62.19Apr 10 | $117.98 |
| Implied growth | +29% | +14% | +21% |
| P/E | 151.0× | 58.1× | 76.0× |
| P/FCF | 65.4× | 29.9× | 42.0× |
| EV/Sales | 12.1× | 5.4× | — |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AGYS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 21% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AGYS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.38
- Volatility
- 50% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.01
How it ranks
Where AGYS stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate27% · price above our base caseLowest 30%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield2.4% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 31%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+15% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 34%of 1,814
- Operating margin14% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 43%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $86.65 · MV $116.11 · FCF value $53.63
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.3% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.81 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 26, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 67% to $1.37 in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 13.5% in FY2026 from 6.6% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 43% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 15% to $344M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $86.65, 27% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 24 points in two fiscal years, to 12% in FY2026.
ValuationP/E of 76.0× vs a 33.0× median for the 220 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.4%, below the 3.3% median for the 281 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 9.4×, above the 5.9× median for the 261 Technology companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 76.0 · FCF yield 2.4% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 76.0×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 42.0×
- FCF yield
- 2.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 9.79×
- Price / book
- 9.42×
- Market cap
- $3.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $344M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +14.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.56
- EPS growth, last FY
- +67.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $44M
- Net income growth
- +82%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 63.8%
- Operating margin
- 14.3%
- Net margin
- 12.9%
- FCF margin
- 23.3%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $138M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 136.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $80M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +43%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $24M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Agilysys’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +18%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin64%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital19%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+18%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $117.98
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$62.19−47.3%
- Fair value est.base case$86.65−26.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 26$116.11−1.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$117.98you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$129.50+9.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days −4.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AGYS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Agilysys in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in IT services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.