Stocks / Technology · IT services

JOYY

JOYY JOYY

Technology · IT services

$79.33−1.23% dayMon Nov 2 close

Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 7% below its 52-week high.

Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.

Worth knowing

Share count down 27% in 2 years

From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these

Outside our quality screenReports Nov 18

Get alerts

Fair value est.: $47.37−40%
Market Value: —
Off 52-wk high: −7%
Risk vs market: Lowbeta 0.59

4 bullish · 5 bearish See why

Covered for reference — doesn’t pass our quality screen (market cap $3.9B, under our $20B floor; no cash-flow data; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%). We show its price, Market Value and DCF, but it never appears in Dips, Top Picks or reversal signals. The screen

Repriced or dip?

Near its high

Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.

Data-based read, not advice.

Priced in

How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).

At the high ($84.93, Oct 20) the price assumed about 13%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($54.42, May 22) about 5%; today about 12%. The last 3 years delivered −14%/yr (free cash flow).

52-wk high$84.93+13%
52-wk low$54.42+5%
Now$79.33+12%

Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −14%/yr (free cash flow)

	High	Low	Now
Price	$84.93Oct 20	$54.42May 22	$79.33
Implied growth	+13%	+5%	+12%
P/E	2.2×	1.4×	2.0×
P/FCF	28.4×	18.2×	26.5×

What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.

How it’s computed

Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.

Valuation

What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.

Fair value estimate

How the range is computed

Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.

$47.37−40% vs price

Price $79.33

Bear$36.76

Base$47.37

Bull$62.85

Price is above even the bull case.

What the price implies To be worth today’s price, JOYY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.

Risk vs market

How risk vs market is measured

One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much JOYY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.

Low

Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).

Beta vs S&P 500: 0.59
Volatility: 33% vs 13% SPY
Correlation SPY: 0.23
Correlation QQQ: 0.22

How it ranks

Where JOYY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.

Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures

Discount to fair value estimate40% · price above our base case
Lowest 20%of 1,314
Free cash flow yield3.8% · free cash flow vs market cap
Lowest 48%of 1,391
Dividends + buybacks yield6.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market cap
Top 16%of 1,836
Revenue growth, last 12 months−5.1% · vs the 12 months before
Lowest 5%of 1,814
Operating margin2.6% · of sales kept as operating profit
Lowest 18%of 1,288

From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.

Valuation details

DCF $47.37

How

Market ValueNo thesis-changing filing in the window we track

—

Fair value estimateDCF: ten years of free cash flow per share, discounted

$47.3740% downside

Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.99 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, 20 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 28, 2026.

Fundamentals

The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.

Bull vs bear

Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.

Top bullish points 4 of 5

ValuationP/E of 2.0× vs a 33.0× median for the 220 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 37% over the last 12 months, up 25 points in two years.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.7% ($156M paid over 12 months, 7% of earnings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 108× over.

Top bearish points 5 of 5

ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $47.37, 40% below the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 29% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 36%, below the 59% median for the 265 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 2.6%, below the 11% median for the 267 Technology companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no cash-flow data; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.

All fundamentals

P/E 2.0 · FCF yield 3.8% · ROE 37%

Valuation

P/E: 2.0×Technology median 33.0×
Price / FCF: 26.5×
FCF yield: 3.8%
EV / EBITDA: n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
Price / sales: n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
Price / book: 0.65×
Market cap: $4.2Bprice × diluted shares
Enterprise value: n/anot reported in its SEC filings

Growth

Revenue, 12 months: n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
Sales growth, 12 months: n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
Sales growth, 3 yrs: n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
Diluted EPS, 12 months: $1.97
EPS growth, last FY: n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
Net income, 12 months: $2.1B
Net income growth: n/anot reported in its SEC filings

Profitability

Gross margin: 35.9%
Operating margin: 2.6%
Net margin: n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
FCF margin: 7.5%
Return on equity: 37%
Return on invested capital: n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged

Balance sheet

Cash & short-term inv.: $988M
Total debt: n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Net cash: n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
Debt / equity: n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
Interest coverage: 108.2×operating income / interest

Cash flow & returns

Free cash flow, 12 months: $159M
FCF growth, 12 months: −29%
Dividend yield: 3.68%$156M paid
Payout ratio: 7%
Buybacks, 12 months: $133M3.1% of market cap
Share count, 1 year: n/ano quarterly diluted share count
Stock-based comp: $26M

Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From JOYY’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.

The business

Sales +16%

Gross margin35%
Operating margin2%
Return on invested capital1%
Return on equity−26%
Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
Net debt / EBITDA−8.1×

Chart & levels

Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.

Fair value est.Drag across the chart to see any day

Key levels

Every level vs today’s $79.33

Fair value est.base case$47.37−40.3%
52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$54.42−31.4%
PriceMon Nov 2 close$79.33you are here
52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$84.93+7.1%

Momentum & 52-week range

RSI 46 · 5 days −4.4%

$79.33now

52-wk low $54.42high $84.93

Off 52-wk high−6.6%

5 days−4.4%

vs 50-day avg+0.3%

vs 200-day avg+16.1%

RSI (14), last close46

Market cap$4B

Signals

Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.

Setup & signals

No setup armed

All setups

No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.

Next report

Nov 18

Calendar

DateWed Nov 18
Consensus EPS$1.16
Year-ago EPS$1.23
QuarterSep/2026

From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.

JOYY is outside our quality screen

One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.

Voices & buzz

Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.

Who’s talking about it

Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on JOYY in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.

No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.

Compare with peers

Closest in size in IT services

CompanyPrice1 yearvs fair valueP/EMkt cap

RGTIRigetti Computing$10.67−5.2%−76%n/an/a$4B FAFirst Advantage$22.06+2.2%+75%+101%152.0×$4B LIFLife360$44.69+0.6%−55%−17%26.0×$4B QBTSD-Wave Quantum$10.09−5.3%−73%n/an/a$4B AGYSAgilysys$117.98+1.9%−6%−27%76.0×$3B APLDApplied Digital$16.22−9.0%−53%n/an/a$5B

Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.