QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Industrial Specialties
Applied Industrial Technologies AIT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 19% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $190.47−35%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −19%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.81
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $294.12
- Fair value est.base case$190.47−35.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$240.63−18.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$294.12you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$361.95+23.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.0%; bull = 8.5% and 6.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AIT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AIT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.81
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.38
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.31
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 2.9% in a year: $344M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 23% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 21%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
GrowthSales grew 8% to $5.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $190.47, 35% below the price.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 17.6×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.7%, below the 1.7% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 30%, below the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 4.0% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Applied Industrial Technologies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 25.8 · FCF yield 3.9% · ROE 23%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 25.9×
- FCF yield
- 3.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 17.6×
- Price / sales
- 2.16×
- Price / book
- 5.80×
- Market cap
- $10.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $11.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $11.29
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $424M
- Net income growth
- +6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 30.4%
- Operating margin
- 11.2%
- Net margin
- 8.4%
- FCF margin
- 8.3%
- Return on equity
- 23%
- Return on invested capital
- 21%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $112M
- Total debt
- $282M
- Net cash
- −$170M
- Debt / equity
- 0.15×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $422M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −7%
- Dividend yield
- 0.68%$74M paid
- Payout ratio
- 17%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $344M3.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Applied Industrial Technologies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $190.47 · FCF value $227.27
Assumes 4.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.0% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.35 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 32 · 5 days −7.2%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital22%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
AIT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.