QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Rental/Leasing Companies
Ryder System R
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $389.71+38%
- Market Value
- $275.65price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.98
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $282.55
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$162.50−42.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$275.65−2.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$282.55at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$282.55you are here
- Fair value est.base case$389.71+37.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, R’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much R moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.98
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.39
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $389.71, 38% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.7% (price / FCF 11.5×): $954M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 6.8% in a year: $541M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 17% over the last 12 months, up 3 points in two years.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.7×, below the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $7.0B, 64% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt is 2.4× shareholders’ equity.
GrowthSales grew only 1.8% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 3.2% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ryder System in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 21.1 · FCF yield 8.7% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 11.5×
- FCF yield
- 8.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.84×
- Price / book
- 3.68×
- Market cap
- $11.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $18.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $13.10
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $520M
- Net income growth
- +4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 4.0%
- FCF margin
- 7.3%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $198M
- Total debt
- $7.2B
- Net cash
- −$7.0B
- Debt / equity
- 2.42×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $954M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.37%$150M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $541M4.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Ryder System’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $389.71 · MV $275.65 · FCF value $1,010
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $24.59 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 76 · 5 days +4.3%
The business
FCF $1.5B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield14.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity17%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
R is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.