QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Shoe Manufacturing
Deckers Outdoor DECK
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 32% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $236.02+188%
- Market Value
- $81.13price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −32%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.07
5 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $81.99
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$77.51−5.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$81.13−1.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$81.99you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$120.94+47.5%
- Fair value est.base case$236.02+187.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.7%; bull = 8.5% and 16.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DECK’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DECK moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.07
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.5% (price / FCF 10.5×): $1.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $236.02, 188% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsShare count down 8.4% in a year: $1.2B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 10.5× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 44% over the last 12 months, up 5 points in two years.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 6% over the last 12 months, from 15% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Deckers Outdoor in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 10.5 · FCF yield 9.5% · ROE 44%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.5×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 10.5×
- FCF yield
- 9.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.99×
- Price / book
- 4.78×
- Market cap
- $11.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.52
- EPS growth, last FY
- +10.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- +4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 58.9%
- Operating margin
- 23.6%
- Net margin
- 19.0%
- FCF margin
- 18.9%
- Return on equity
- 44%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.2B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 279.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +7%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.2B11.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $46M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Deckers Outdoor’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $236.02 · MV $81.13 · FCF value $148.74
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 14.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.7% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.78 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 47 · 5 days +1.1%
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin15%
- Gross margin59%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital71%
- Return on equity44%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
DECK is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.