QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Allegro MicroSystems ALGM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 54% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 55% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 28%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $8.82−73%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −54%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.09
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 54% below its 52-week high (Jun 30), but the business held up: revenue +13.3%, revenue growth rate +5.1 pts, earnings per share turned to a profit.
Some numbers held up (revenue +13.3%, revenue growth rate +5.1 pts, earnings per share turned to a profit), others slipped (free cash flow −16.4%). The price is 54% below its 52-week high.
The price is 54% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −16.4%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$890M → $1.0B (+13.3%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+22.8% → +27.9% a year (+5.1 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a profitheld up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$125M → $104M (−16.4%)changed
- Operating margin2.1% → 7.5% (+5.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+1.4% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+0.4% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −54%, sector median +1% since Jun 30changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −54%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −2% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 103.1× at the high → 57.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 27, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 25, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($69.62, Jun 30) the price assumed about 38%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($22.80, Nov 20) about 31%; today about 27%. The last 3 years delivered 3%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 3%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $69.62Jun 30 | $22.80Nov 20 | $32.15 |
| Implied growth | +38% | +31% | +27% |
| P/E | n/a | n/a | 195.1× |
| P/FCF | 103.1× | 73.1× | 57.8× |
| EV/Sales | 14.6× | 5.6× | 6.1× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALGM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 27% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALGM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.09
- Volatility
- 69% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.58
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.66
How it ranks
Where ALGM stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate73% · price above our base caseLowest 3%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.7% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 25%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+28% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 17%of 1,814
- Operating margin7.5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 35%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital5% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 23%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $8.82 · FCF value $17.41
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.9% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.56 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 25, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $88M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 80% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 28% to $1.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.3×, below the 0.4× median for the 139 Technology companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $8.82, 73% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 2.1% in FY2026 from 18.7% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 195.1× vs a 33.0× median for the 220 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 46.3% in FY2026 from 54.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
P/E 195.1 · FCF yield 1.7% · ROE 3%
Valuation
- P/E
- 195.1×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 57.8×
- FCF yield
- 1.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 42.3×
- Price / sales
- 5.98×
- Price / book
- 6.02×
- Market cap
- $6.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $6.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +27.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.17
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $31M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 47.9%
- Operating margin
- 7.5%
- Net margin
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- 10.4%
- Return on equity
- 3%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $193M
- Total debt
- $281M
- Net cash
- −$88M
- Debt / equity
- 0.28×
- Interest coverage
- 4.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $104M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +80%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $52M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 25, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 25, 2026. From Allegro MicroSystems’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +29%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin13%
- Gross margin48%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital9%
- Return on equity3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+29%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $32.15
- Fair value est.base case$8.82−72.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$22.80−29.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$32.15you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$69.62+116.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days −0.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
ALGM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Allegro MicroSystems in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.