QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Alkermes ALKS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 19% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $30.07−33%
- Market Value
- $43.97price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −19%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.78
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 19% below its 52-week high (Jul 7), but the business held up: revenue +12.2%, revenue growth rate +12.1 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +3.2% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue +12.2%, revenue growth rate +12.1 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +3.2% of market cap since the high), others slipped (earnings per share turned to a loss, operating margin −8.6 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less). The price is 19% below its 52-week high.
The price is 19% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share turned to a loss, operating margin −8.6 pts, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.6B → $1.8B (+12.2%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+3.2% → +15.3% a year (+12.1 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a losschanged
- Free cash flow, 12 months$222M → $227M (+2.5%)held up
- Operating margin12.3% → 3.7% (−8.6 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+6.1% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+3.2% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −19%, sector median +3% since Jul 7changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −19%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +7% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 41.4× at the high → 34.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($55.22, Jul 7) the price assumed about 20%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($27.20, Mar 18) about −6%; today about 17%. The last 3 years delivered 10%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 10%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $55.22Jul 7 | $27.20Mar 18 | $44.89 |
| Implied growth | +20% | −6% | +17% |
| P/E | 60.1× | 19.0× | n/a |
| P/FCF | 41.4× | 9.6× | 34.8× |
| EV/Sales | 6.5× | — | 4.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.9%; bull = 8.5% and 11.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALKS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALKS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.78
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where ALKS stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate33% · price above our base caseLowest 25%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield2.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 37%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+15% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 34%of 1,814
- Operating margin3.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 21%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital1.6% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 12%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $30.07 · MV $43.97 · FCF value $22.45
Assumes 9.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.29 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 3, 2026. Net debt $756M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 15% to $1.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 83%, above the 62% median for the 146 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 4.2×, below the 5.2× median for the 217 Health Care companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $30.07, 33% below the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.7× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $351,000 over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 17.2% in FY2025 from 24.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 2.9% · ROE -0% · Sales +15%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 34.8×
- FCF yield
- 2.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 59.9×
- Price / sales
- 4.51×
- Price / book
- 4.25×
- Market cap
- $7.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.01
- EPS growth, last FY
- −34.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$351,000
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 82.9%
- Operating margin
- 3.7%
- Net margin
- −0.0%
- FCF margin
- 13.0%
- Return on equity
- −0%
- Return on invested capital
- 2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $755M
- Total debt
- $1.5B
- Net cash
- −$756M
- Debt / equity
- 0.81×
- Interest coverage
- 0.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $227M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −54%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +4.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $120M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Alkermes’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +27%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin87%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+27%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $44.89
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$27.20−39.4%
- Fair value est.base case$30.07−33.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 12$43.97−2.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$44.89you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$55.22+23.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days +1.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS($0.08)
- Year-ago EPS$0.49
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ALKS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alkermes in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.