QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Axsome Therapeutics AXSM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 47% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Down 48% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 54%
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −47%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.57
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 47% below its 52-week high (Jun 12), but the business held up: revenue +22.2%, operating margin +7.0 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.1% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (revenue +22.2%, operating margin +7.0 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.1% of market cap since the high), others slipped (revenue growth rate −9.7 pts). The price is 47% below its 52-week high.
The price is 47% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −9.7 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$708M → $865M (+22.2%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+63.9% → +54.2% a year (−9.7 pts)changed
- Operating margin−24.4% → −17.5% (+7.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+2.0% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+0.1% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −47%, sector median +13% since Jun 12changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −47%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +22% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for AXSM: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AXSM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.57
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
How it ranks
Where AXSM stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield−1.2% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 14%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+54% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 6%of 1,814
- Operating margin−17% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 5%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 54% to $865M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −26.1% in FY2025 from −85.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $126M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
TechnicalRSI(14) of 20: oversold, the zone where our reversal signal rules start watching.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$83M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityLost $157M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 82 points in two fiscal years, to -125% in FY2023.
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −17% operating margin over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield -1.2% · ROE -176% · Sales +54%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −1.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 8.21×
- Price / book
- 67.34×
- Market cap
- $7.1Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $7.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $865M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +54.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$3.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$157M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −17.5%
- Net margin
- −18.2%
- FCF margin
- −9.5%
- Return on equity
- −176%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $314M
- Total debt
- $188M
- Net cash
- $126M
- Debt / equity
- 1.78×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$83M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +4.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $100M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Axsome Therapeutics’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.1B · Sales +52%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield-1.2%
- Gross margin93%
- Operating margin−5%
- Return on equity−176%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+52%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $136.01
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$134.93−0.8%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$136.01you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$255.17+87.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 20 · 5 days −5.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AXSM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Axsome Therapeutics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.