QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Amplitude AMPL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 4% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 20% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $6.28−63%
- Market Value
- $14.00price +20%
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.08
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($17.44, Oct 28) the price assumed about 32%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($5.61, Apr 10) about 12%; today about 32%. The last 3 years delivered 13%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 13%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $17.44Oct 28 | $5.61Apr 10 | $16.79 |
| Implied growth | +32% | +12% | +32% |
| P/FCF | 76.6× | 26.3× | 73.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 13.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 11.0%; bull = 8.5% and 15.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AMPL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 32% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AMPL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.08
- Volatility
- 65% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
How it ranks
Where AMPL stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate63% · price above our base caseLowest 7%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield1.4% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 23%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield5.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 23%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+18% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 29%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $6.28 · MV $14.00 · FCF value $6.00
Assumes 13.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 13.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.23 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 50% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 18% to $374M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin of 72%, above the 59% median for the 265 Technology companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 1.5% over 12 months, below the −0.3% median for the 239 Technology companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $6.28, 63% below the price.
ProfitabilityLost $100M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 5 points in two fiscal years, to -36% in FY2025.
ValuationTrades 19.9% above its Market Value of $14.00, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 1.4% · ROE -48% · Sales +18%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 73.8×
- FCF yield
- 1.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 5.80×
- Price / book
- 15.95×
- Market cap
- $2.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $374M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +18.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.75
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$100M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 72.4%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- −26.6%
- FCF margin
- 7.9%
- Return on equity
- −48%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $141M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $29M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +50%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $118M5.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $94M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Amplitude’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +21%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.4%
- Gross margin72%
- Operating margin−33%
- Return on equity−48%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+21%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $16.79
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.61−66.6%
- Fair value est.base case$6.28−62.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$14.00−16.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$16.79you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$17.44+3.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days −2.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.17)
- Year-ago EPS($0.18)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
AMPL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Amplitude in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.