QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Karooooo KARO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 6% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $46.39−28%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.92
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.1%; bull = 8.5% and 16.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KARO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 20% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KARO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.92
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.23
How it ranks
Where KARO stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate28% · price above our base caseLowest 28%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield2.4% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 31%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.1% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 41%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+20% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 26%of 1,814
- Operating margin26% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 17%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $46.39 · FCF value $875.07
Assumes 14.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.1% a year FY24–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.58 a share (fiscal year to Feb 28, 2026, converted from ZAR at 0.06016), from the 20-F filed Jun 9, 2026. Capex: purchases of property, plant and equipment (from the filing).
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 31% over the last 12 months, up 5 points in two years.
GrowthSales grew 20% to $330M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 16% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 26% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 68.0% in FY2026 from 64.0% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $46.39, 28% below the price.
ValuationPrice / book of 10.1×, above the 5.9× median for the 261 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.4%, below the 3.3% median for the 281 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 7.9% in the last fiscal year, below the 16% median for the 168 Technology companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 33.5 · FCF yield 2.4% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 33.5×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 41.1×
- FCF yield
- 2.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.08×
- Price / book
- 10.14×
- Market cap
- $2.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $330M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $32.17
- EPS growth, last FY
- +7.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $60M
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 68.0%
- Operating margin
- 25.8%
- Net margin
- 18.1%
- FCF margin
- 14.8%
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $69M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 18.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $49M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −11%
- Dividend yield
- 2.08%$42M paid
- Payout ratio
- 70%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Feb 28, 2026; balance sheet at Feb 28, 2026. From Karooooo’s SEC filings, reported in ZAR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +22%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin67%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital128%
- Return on equity35%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+22%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $64.82
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$41.60−35.8%
- Fair value est.base case$46.39−28.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$64.82you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$68.71+6.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +0.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
KARO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Karooooo in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.