QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Metal Fabrications
American Superconductor AMSC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 57% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 10% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 57% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 26%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $13.44−49%
- Market Value
- $29.22price −10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −57%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.33
52-week range 4% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $26.35Fair value est. $13.44Market Value $29.22
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($25.01, Oct 22) about 27%; today about 28%. The last 3 years delivered 41%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 41%/yr (revenue)
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $25.01Oct 22 | $26.35 |
| Implied growth | +27% | +28% |
| P/E | 8.6× | 9.1× |
| P/FCF | 57.4× | 60.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AMSC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 28% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AMSC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 6.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.33
- Volatility
- 79% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.53
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.59
How it ranks
Where AMSC stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate49% · price above our base caseLowest 13%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield1.7% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 28%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+26% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 19%of 2,184
- Operating margin4.9% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 30%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $13.44 · MV $29.22
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 41.3% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.44 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 41% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 3.8% in FY2026 from −7.8% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 9.1× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 26% to $321M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 9.8% below its Market Value of $29.22, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $13.44, 49% below the price.
Cash returnsShare count up 18.6% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Cash returnsFree cash flow fell 21% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 61×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.33 vs the S&P 500 and 79% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 9.1 · FCF yield 1.7% · ROE 30%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 60.5×
- FCF yield
- 1.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.87×
- Price / book
- 2.17×
- Market cap
- $1.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $321M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +25.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +41.3%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.08
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $137M
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 28.6%
- Operating margin
- 4.9%
- Net margin
- 42.6%
- FCF margin
- 6.4%
- Return on equity
- 30%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $144M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $21M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −21%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +18.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $17M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From American Superconductor’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow margin0%
- Gross margin29%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity30%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA−6.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $26.35
- Fair value est.base case$13.44−49.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$25.01−5.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$26.35you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$29.22+10.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$60.63+130.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days +3.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.05
- Year-ago EPS$0.12
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
AMSC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on American Superconductor in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Metal Fabrications
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.