QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
BJ's Restaurants BJRI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 15% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 5% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $33.29−47%
- Market Value
- $62.45price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.76
52-week range 73% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $63.14Fair value est. $33.29Market Value $62.45
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 15% below its 52-week high (Jul 30), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) +0.7% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +0.5 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) +0.7% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +0.5 pts), others slipped (free cash flow −42.6%, earnings per share −7.7%). The price is 15% below its 52-week high.
The price is 15% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: free cash flow −42.6%, earnings per share −7.7%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.4B → $1.4B (+1.7%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+3.0% → +3.5% a year (+0.5 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.03 → $1.87 (−7.7%)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$80M → $46M (−42.6%)changed
- Operating margin3.0% → 2.7% (−0.2 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+0.7% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −15%, sector median −1% since Jul 30about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −15%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −8% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 20.3× at the high → 30.1× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($74.26, Jul 30) the price assumed about 7%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($33.42, Mar 13) about 6%; today about 15%. The last 3 years delivered 3%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 3%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $74.26Jul 30 | $33.42Mar 13 | $63.14 |
| Implied growth | +7% | +6% | +15% |
| P/E | 36.7× | 15.5× | 33.8× |
| P/FCF | 20.3× | 18.5× | 30.1× |
| EV/Sales | 1.2× | 0.6× | 1.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BJRI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BJRI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.76
- Volatility
- 44% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.17
How it ranks
Where BJRI stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate47% · price above our base caseLowest 14%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield3.3% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 44%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 41%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+3.5% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 25%of 2,184
- Operating margin2.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 22%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital9.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 48%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $33.29 · MV $62.45 · FCF value $60.71
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 2.9% a year FY23–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.10 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 31, 2026. Net debt $30M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 209% to $2.16 in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 4.7% in a year: $46M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 3.3% in FY2025 from 1.0% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.1×, below the 0.8× median for the 303 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $33.29, 47% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 33.8× vs a 20.1× median for the 411 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew only 2.9% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $0.14): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 33.8 · FCF yield 3.3% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 33.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.1×
- Price / FCF
- 30.1×
- FCF yield
- 3.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.5×
- Price / sales
- 0.96×
- Price / book
- 3.48×
- Market cap
- $1.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.9%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.89
- EPS growth, last FY
- +208.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $41M
- Net income growth
- +49%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 74.5%
- Operating margin
- 2.7%
- Net margin
- 2.9%
- FCF margin
- 3.2%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $14M
- Total debt
- $44M
- Net cash
- −$30M
- Debt / equity
- 0.11×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $46M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −14%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $46M3.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $9M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From BJ's Restaurants’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin16%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $63.14
- Fair value est.base case$33.29−47.3%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$33.42−47.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 30$62.45−1.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$63.14you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$74.26+17.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 59 · 5 days +9.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.14
- Year-ago EPS$0.04
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BJRI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on BJ's Restaurants in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Restaurants
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.