QualityDipStocks / Energy · Coal Mining
Alliance Resource Partners L.P. Common Units representing Limited Partners Interests ARLP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 9% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $43.98+67%
- Market Value
- $26.57price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.11
3 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 9% below its 52-week high (Mar 27), but the business held up: revenue growth rate +5.3 pts, shares outstanding unchanged.
Some numbers held up (revenue growth rate +5.3 pts, shares outstanding unchanged), others slipped (earnings per share −14.4%, operating margin −2.9 pts). The price is 9% below its 52-week high.
The price is 9% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −14.4%, operating margin −2.9 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($28.99, Mar 27) the price assumed about −6%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($23.10, Dec 29) about −9%; today about −6%. The last 3 years delivered −9%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −9%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $28.99Mar 27 | $23.10Dec 29 | $26.29 |
| Implied growth | −6% | −9% | −6% |
| P/E | 12.0× | 12.1× | 12.7× |
| P/FCF | 9.6× | 8.2× | 9.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ARLP’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ARLP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.11
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.07
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.08
How it ranks
Where ARLP stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate67% · price below our base caseTop 17%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield11% · free cash flow vs market capTop 10%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−5.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 5%of 1,814
- Operating margin15% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 41%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $43.98 · MV $26.57 · FCF value $52.19
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -3.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.78 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $468M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.6% (price / FCF 9.5×): $357M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $43.98, 67% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 12.7×, below the 15.9× median for the 73 Energy companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 17.6% in FY2025 from 26.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales fell 5% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 3% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
P/E 12.7 · FCF yield 10.6% · Sales −5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.7×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 9.5×
- FCF yield
- 10.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.56×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $3.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −5.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −3.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $266M
- Net income growth
- +13%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 14.7%
- Net margin
- 12.3%
- FCF margin
- 16.4%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 6.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $357M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +12%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From Alliance Resource Partners L.P. Common Units representing Limited Partners Interests’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin37%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $26.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$23.10−12.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$26.29you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 26$26.57+1.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$28.99+10.3%
- Fair value est.base case$43.98+67.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 58 · 5 days −0.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
ARLP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Alliance Resource Partners L.P. Common Units representing Limited Partners Interests in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Coal Mining
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.