QualityDipStocks / Energy · Coal Mining
Warrior Met Coal HCC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 12% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Down 26% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 37%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $74.78−9%
- Market Value
- $93.50price −12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.38
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 25% below its 52-week high (Jun 2), but the business held up: revenue +14.4%, revenue growth rate +26.4 pts, earnings per share +59.2%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +14.4%, revenue growth rate +26.4 pts, earnings per share +59.2%), others slipped. The price is 25% below its 52-week high.
The price is 25% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.5B → $1.7B (+14.4%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+11.1% → +37.5% a year (+26.4 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.61 → $4.15 (+59.2%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$136M → $250M (+84.1%)held up
- Operating margin9.7% → 13.6% (+3.9 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.2% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+2.3% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Energy)stock −25%, sector median +4% since Jun 2changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −25%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +59% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 42.9× at the high → 17.4× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($110.28, Jun 2) the price assumed about 21%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($64.82, Nov 4) about 14%; today about 5%. The last 3 years delivered −39%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −39%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $110.28Jun 2 | $64.82Nov 4 | $82.23 |
| Implied growth | +21% | +14% | +5% |
| P/E | 42.3× | 84.5× | 19.8× |
| P/FCF | 42.9× | 29.3× | 17.4× |
| EV/Sales | 3.9× | 2.6× | 2.5× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HCC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HCC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.38
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.09
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.10
How it ranks
Where HCC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate9% · price above our base caseLowest 48%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield5.7% · free cash flow vs market capTop 33%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 24%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+37% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 11%of 1,814
- Operating margin14% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 45%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital10% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 50%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $74.78 · MV $93.50
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -9.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.72 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $148M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 37% to $1.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 114% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.7% (price / FCF 17.4×): $250M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet cash of $148M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
ValuationTrades 12.0% below its Market Value of $93.50, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 25.0% in FY2025 from 45.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 3.5% in FY2025 from 32.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 77% to $1.08 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 23 points in two fiscal years, to 3% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow.
All fundamentals
P/E 19.8 · FCF yield 5.7% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.8×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 17.4×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 9.5×
- Price / sales
- 2.59×
- Price / book
- 1.90×
- Market cap
- $4.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +37.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −9.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.16
- EPS growth, last FY
- −77.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $219M
- Net income growth
- +444%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 32.1%
- Operating margin
- 13.6%
- Net margin
- 13.0%
- FCF margin
- 14.8%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $302M
- Total debt
- $155M
- Net cash
- $148M
- Debt / equity
- 0.07×
- Interest coverage
- 17.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $250M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +114%
- Dividend yield
- 0.40%$17M paid
- Payout ratio
- 8%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $22M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Warrior Met Coal’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.1B · Sales +71%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin−3%
- Gross margin31%
- Operating margin18%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+71%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $82.23
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$64.82−21.2%
- Fair value est.base case$74.78−9.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$82.23you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$93.50+13.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$110.28+34.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days −3.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.71
- Year-ago EPS$0.70
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
HCC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Warrior Met Coal in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Coal Mining
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.