QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Arcutis Biotherapeutics ARQT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 5% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 17% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Revenue up 76% in a year, top 4% of the 1820 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $8.89−72%
- Market Value
- $26.67price +17%
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.00
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 5% below its 52-week high (Oct 20), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 5% below its 52-week high.
The price is 5% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($32.82, Oct 20) the price assumed about 40%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about 39%.
| High | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $32.82Oct 20 | $31.26 |
| Implied growth | +40% | +39% |
| P/E | 156.4× | 149.0× |
| P/FCF | 113.9× | 108.5× |
| EV/Sales | 9.3× | 8.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ARQT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 39% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ARQT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 4.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.00
- Volatility
- 52% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
How it ranks
Where ARQT stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate72% · price above our base caseLowest 3%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield0.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 20%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+76% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 4%of 1,814
- Operating margin7.4% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 34%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital30% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 11%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $8.89 · MV $26.67 · FCF value $4.01
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 367.3% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.29 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $130M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 76% to $464M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −3.3% in FY2025 from −404.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 30%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Balance sheetNet cash of $130M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 16% over the last 12 months, up 287 points in two years.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $8.89, 72% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 149.0× vs a 29.0× median for the 135 Health Care companies we cover.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.5× over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count up 7.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationTrades 17.2% above its Market Value of $26.67, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 149.0 · FCF yield 0.9% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 149.0×Health Care median 29.0×
- Price / FCF
- 108.5×
- FCF yield
- 0.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 9.16×
- Price / book
- 19.26×
- Market cap
- $4.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $464M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +76.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/an/m
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.22
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $29M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 91.1%
- Operating margin
- 7.4%
- Net margin
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.4%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 30%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $239M
- Total debt
- $109M
- Net cash
- $130M
- Debt / equity
- 0.49×
- Interest coverage
- 2.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $39M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +7.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $44M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Arcutis Biotherapeutics’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.0B · Sales +59%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin91%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital48%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+59%
- Net debt / EBITDA−3.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $31.26
- Fair value est.base case$8.89−71.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$19.50−37.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$26.67−14.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$31.26you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$32.82+5.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days −1.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.17
- Year-ago EPS$0.06
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ARQT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Arcutis Biotherapeutics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.