QualityDipStocks / Technology · Industrial machinery
ASML ASML
On dip watch: 21% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $987.27−37%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.28
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $1,566
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$966.57−38.3%
- Fair value est.base case$987.27−37.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$1,566you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$1,989+27.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ASML’s free cash flow would need to grow about 24% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ASML moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.28
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.62
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.71
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 93%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 50% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 35% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 16% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $987.27, 37% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 9 points in two fiscal years, to 49% in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 56.4× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 49×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.28 vs the S&P 500 and 47% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on ASML in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 56.4 · FCF yield 2.0% · ROE 50%
Valuation
- P/E
- 56.4×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 48.9×
- FCF yield
- 2.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 43.2×
- Price / sales
- 16.60×
- Price / book
- 27.66×
- Market cap
- $609Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $598B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $36.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +15.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $24.71
- EPS growth, last FY
- +28.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $10.8B
- Net income growth
- +27%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 52.8%
- Operating margin
- 34.6%
- Net margin
- 29.4%
- FCF margin
- 33.9%
- Return on equity
- 50%
- Return on invested capital
- 93%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $15.0B
- Total debt
- $4.2B
- Net cash
- $10.8B
- Debt / equity
- 0.19×
- Interest coverage
- 95.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $12.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +22%
- Dividend yield
- 0.47%$2.9B paid
- Payout ratio
- 27%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $6.7B1.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $227M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From ASML’s SEC filings, reported in EUR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $987.27 · FCF value $1,273
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 15.6% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $32.00 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from EUR at 1.123), from the 20-F filed Feb 25, 2026. Net cash $10.0B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days −0.4%
The business
FCF $21.0B · Sales +55%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$21.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin53%
- Gross margin54%
- Operating margin39%
- Return on invested capital612%
- Return on equity65%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+55%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ASML fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ASML or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.