Stocks / Technology · Industrial machinery
In a deep dip: 45% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Every level vs today’s $239.11
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.1%; bull = 8.5% and 12.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LRCX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 22% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LRCX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 82%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 70% over the last 12 months, up 13 points in two years.
GrowthSales grew 33% to $26.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 35.5× is 15% below its own average of 42.0× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 45% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $122.46, 49% below the price.
ValuationPrice / free cash flow of 46×: a rich price for the cash it generates today.
ValuationPrice / book of 21.6×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.25 vs the S&P 500 and 66% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
VoicesDan Loeb (Aug 14): “13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 75,000 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.” SEC 13F (Third Point)
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Lam Research in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
Jim CramerCNBC Mad MoneyAnalyst
Jim Cramer Likes Lam Research but Says Buy Just 25% of Your Position24/7 Wall St. ·
Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET. Matched by name against a maintained list plus the company’s own executives. Information only, not advice.
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
Trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 27, 2026. From Lam Research’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Assumes 10.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.1% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.21 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026.
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
“Lam Research is the best in the game of capital equipment. Now, here's what you have to do: if you want to buy 100 shares of Lam, I don't want you to buy more than 25 right now. We have some bad numbers from Intel, really bad numbers, and I'm kind of...”
13F: sold entire stake, Q2 2026 (had 75,000 shares). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.
13F: new stake, Q2 2026 (394,080 shares, now 1.7% of the 13F portfolio). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
One text when a published rule fires on LRCX or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
QualityDip