QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals AUPH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 13% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Operating margin 49%, top 3% of the 1288 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $40.40+150%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.55
5 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 13% below its 52-week high (Jun 24), but the business held up: revenue +7.9%, operating margin +6.9 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (revenue +7.9%, operating margin +6.9 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped. The price is 13% below its 52-week high.
The price is 13% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$298M → $322M (+7.9%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+20.6% → +21.0% a year (+0.4 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.17 → $2.32 (+7.3%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$167M → $177M (+6.2%)held up
- Operating margin41.7% → 48.6% (+6.9 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−1.8% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −13%, sector median +11% since Jun 24changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −13%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +7% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 15.4× at the high → 12.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($18.62, Jun 24) the price assumed about 2%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($13.17, Oct 31) about 7%; today about −1%. The last 3 years delivered 28%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 28%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $18.62Jun 24 | $13.17Oct 31 | $16.14 |
| Implied growth | +2% | +7% | −1% |
| P/E | 8.6× | 29.9× | 6.9× |
| P/FCF | 15.4× | 19.6× | 12.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AUPH’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AUPH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.55
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
How it ranks
Where AUPH stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 4 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate150% · price below our base caseTop 3%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield8.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 17%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 41%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+21% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 24%of 1,814
- Operating margin49% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 3%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $40.40 · FCF value $25.68
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 28.3% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.31 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 37.1% in FY2025 from −52.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 61% over the last 12 months, up 70 points in two years.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $40.40, 150% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 6.9× vs a 29.0× median for the 135 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.1% (price / FCF 12.3×): $177M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 88.5% in FY2025 from 91.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
All fundamentals
P/E 6.9 · FCF yield 8.1% · ROE 61%
Valuation
- P/E
- 6.9×Health Care median 29.0×
- Price / FCF
- 12.3×
- FCF yield
- 8.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- 3.32×
- Market cap
- $2.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $314M
- Net income growth
- +304%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 90.6%
- Operating margin
- 48.6%
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- 55.0%
- Return on equity
- 61%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $46M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 40.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $177M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +48%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $75M3.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $15M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Aurinia Pharmaceuticals’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin44%
- Gross margin76%
- Operating margin42%
- Return on invested capital47%
- Return on equity61%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $16.14
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$13.17−18.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$16.14you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.62+15.4%
- Fair value est.base case$40.40+150.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days −5.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
AUPH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.