QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Harmony Biosciences HRMY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 4% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 23% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $39.54price −4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.55
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 12% below its 52-week high (Sep 2), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 12% below its 52-week high.
The price is 12% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$960M → $960M (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.09 → $3.09 (0.0%)about the same
- Operating margin24.0% → 24.0% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Health Care)stock −12%, sector median 0% since Sep 2about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −12%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 13.9× at the high → 12.3× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Sep 2, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($26.54, Mar 27) about −19%. The last 3 years delivered 34%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 34%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $42.86Sep 2 | $26.54Mar 27 | $37.91 |
| Implied growth | n/a | −19% | n/a |
| P/E | 13.9× | 9.8× | 12.3× |
| P/FCF | — | 4.5× | — |
| EV/Sales | 2.1× | 1.1× | 1.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for HRMY: the model gives 382% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HRMY’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HRMY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.55
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.18
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
How it ranks
Where HRMY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 4 measures
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+24% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 21%of 1,814
- Operating margin24% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 20%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital36% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 9%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $39.54 · FCF value $77.54
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 12.3× vs a 29.0× median for the 135 Health Care companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet cash of $514M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales compounded 26% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 24% to $960M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationTrades 4.1% below its Market Value of $39.54, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 24.0% in FY2025 from 33.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 9 points in two fiscal years, to 18% in FY2025.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $1): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 12.3 · ROE 20% · Sales +24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 12.3×Health Care median 29.0×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.32×
- Price / book
- 2.23×
- Market cap
- $2.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $960M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +24.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +25.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.09
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $181M
- Net income growth
- +0%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 75.4%
- Operating margin
- 24.0%
- Net margin
- 18.9%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- 36%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $668M
- Total debt
- $154M
- Net cash
- $514M
- Debt / equity
- 0.15×
- Interest coverage
- 17.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $41M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Harmony Biosciences’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin75%
- Operating margin34%
- Return on invested capital52%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.0×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $37.91
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$26.54−30.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$37.91you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$39.54+4.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$42.86+13.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days +2.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1
- Year-ago EPS$0.87
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
HRMY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Harmony Biosciences in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.