QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Power Generation
Avista AVA
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 11% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 4% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $37.04price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.21
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 11% below its 52-week high (Feb 13), but the business held up: earnings per share +17.1%, operating margin +1.2 pts.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share +17.1%, operating margin +1.2 pts), others slipped (revenue growth rate −4.0 pts, revenue −2.3%). The price is 11% below its 52-week high.
The price is 11% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −4.0 pts, revenue −2.3%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.0B → $1.9B (−2.3%)changed
- Revenue growth rate+2.1% → −1.8% a year (−4.0 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$2.33 → $2.72 (+17.1%)held up
- Operating margin17.5% → 18.8% (+1.2 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+2.6% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Stock vs its sector (Utilities)stock −11%, sector median −1% since Feb 13held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −11%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +7% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 18.5× at the high → 14.1× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 18.5×; 52-wk low: P/E 12.7×; now: P/E 14.1×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $43.08Feb 13 | $34.79Sep 28 | $38.37 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 18.5× | 12.7× | 14.1× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for AVA: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AVA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.21
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.14
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.26
How it ranks
Where AVA stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 4 measures
- Free cash flow yield−3.2% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 11%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 26%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−1.8% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 9%of 1,814
- Operating margin19% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 31%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $37.04
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $364M at FY2023, 85% less than at FY2021.
ValuationP/E of 14.1× vs a 21.2× median for the 87 Utilities companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.0% ($161M paid over 12 months, 71% of earnings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 18.0% in FY2025 from 14.7% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$104M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
GrowthSales fell 1.8% over the last 12 months, below the 7.7% median for the 92 Utilities companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 8.3%, below the 10% median for the 78 Utilities companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.44): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 14.1 · FCF yield -3.2% · ROE 8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.1×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −3.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.67×
- Price / book
- 1.13×
- Market cap
- $3.2Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- +3.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $227M
- Net income growth
- +27%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 18.8%
- Net margin
- 11.8%
- FCF margin
- −5.4%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $25M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$104M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 5.03%$161M paid
- Payout ratio
- 71%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $11M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Avista’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales 0%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield-3.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin−12%
- Gross margin67%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)0%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $38.37
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$34.79−9.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 3$37.04−3.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$38.37you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$43.08+12.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +3.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.44
- Year-ago EPS$0.36
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
AVA is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Avista in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Power Generation
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.