QualityDipStocks / Utilities · Power Generation
NorthWestern Energy Group NWE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 11% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $72.15price +11%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.06
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Nov 2), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 28.9×; 52-wk low: P/E 16.9×; now: P/E 28.6×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $80.29Nov 2 | $59.67Oct 31 | $80.29 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 28.9× | 16.9× | 28.6× |
| EV/Sales | 5.1× | 4.4× | 5.0× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for NWE: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NWE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.9× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.06
- Volatility
- 24% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.03
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.03
How it ranks
Where NWE stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−3.9% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 9%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.3% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 43%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+11% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 46%of 1,814
- Operating margin19% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 30%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital4.8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 22%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $72.15
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.3% ($163M paid over 12 months, 95% of earnings).
GrowthSales grew 11% to $1.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.7×, below the 2.1× median for the 78 Utilities companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.5% over 12 months, below the +1.3% median for the 71 Utilities companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$192M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.0× over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet debt of $3.6B, 73% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 6.1× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 11.3% above its Market Value of $72.15, the average price paid since the Jul 30 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 28.6 · FCF yield -3.9% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 28.6×Utilities median 21.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −3.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.7×
- Price / sales
- 2.90×
- Price / book
- 1.69×
- Market cap
- $4.9Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $8.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +10.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +2.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- −19.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $171M
- Net income growth
- −24%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 18.8%
- Net margin
- 10.1%
- FCF margin
- −11.4%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4M
- Total debt
- $3.6B
- Net cash
- −$3.6B
- Debt / equity
- 1.24×
- Interest coverage
- 2.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$192M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 3.32%$163M paid
- Payout ratio
- 95%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $7M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From NorthWestern Energy Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.2B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield-3.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin−14%
- Gross margin56%
- Operating margin17%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $80.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$59.67−25.7%
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 30$72.15−10.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$80.29you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$80.29at the price
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 74 · 5 days +2.3%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.73
- Year-ago EPS$0.79
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NWE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NorthWestern Energy Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Power Generation
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.