QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
AstraZeneca AZN
Not in a dip by our rules: 11% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $174.87−6%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.14
5 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $186.65
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$155.62−16.6%
- Fair value est.base case$174.87−6.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$186.65you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$209.48+12.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.8%; bull = 8.5% and 11.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, AZN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AZN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.14
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.09
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 45% to $6.54 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 23.4% in FY2025 from 17.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $3.1B at FY2025, 39% less than at FY2023.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 25%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 6.0×, above the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on AstraZeneca in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
All fundamentals
P/E 28.5 · FCF yield 4.0% · ROE 23%
Valuation
- P/E
- 28.5×3-yr-end avg 30.9× · Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 24.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.96×
- Price / book
- 5.99×
- Market cap
- $292Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $289B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $58.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.54
- EPS growth, last FY
- +45.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $10.2B
- Net income growth
- +45%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 81.9%
- Operating margin
- 23.4%
- Net margin
- 17.4%
- FCF margin
- 20.0%
- Return on equity
- 23%
- Return on invested capital
- 25%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $5.7B
- Total debt
- $3.1B
- Net cash
- $2.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.06×
- Interest coverage
- 8.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $11.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +18%
- Dividend yield
- 1.70%$5.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 49%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $521M0.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From AstraZeneca’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $174.87 · FCF value $104.23
Assumes 9.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.53 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 20-F filed Feb 24, 2026. Net debt $27.0B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 75 · 5 days +8.8%
The business
FCF $6.0B · Sales +6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$6.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin82%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+6%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when AZN fires a reversal signal
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