QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Pharmaceuticals
Novartis NVS
Not in a dip by our rules: 5% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $168.89+5%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.34
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $160.79
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$122.61−23.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$160.79you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$168.62+4.9%
- Fair value est.base case$168.89+5.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.0%; bull = 8.5% and 8.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NVS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NVS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.34
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.00
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 31% over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.6% (price / FCF 17.9×): $17.6B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 22% to $7.15 in FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.5% ($7.8B paid over 12 months, 56% of earnings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ValuationP/E of 22.5× is 35% above its own average of 16.7× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationPrice / book of 6.8×, above the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Novartis in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Pharmaceuticals
All fundamentals
P/E 22.5 · FCF yield 5.6% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.5×3-yr-end avg 16.7× · Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 17.9×
- FCF yield
- 5.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Price / book
- 6.81×
- Market cap
- $314Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.15
- EPS growth, last FY
- +21.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $14.0B
- Net income growth
- +17%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $11.4B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 15.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $17.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +8%
- Dividend yield
- 2.49%$7.8B paid
- Payout ratio
- 56%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $9.2B2.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Novartis’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $168.89 · FCF value $183.07
Assumes 6.0% growth for 5 years (default; under two years of revenue in SEC data), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.00 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 20-F filed Feb 4, 2026. Net debt $17.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 69 · 5 days +6.4%
The business
FCF $14.0B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$14.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin24%
- Gross margin75%
- Operating margin25%
- Return on invested capital14%
- Return on equity24%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when NVS fires a reversal signal
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