QualityDipStocks / Finance · Commercial Banks
Barclays BCS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 22% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $25.28+13%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.62
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $22.30
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$20.07−10.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$22.30you are here
- Fair value est.base case$25.28+13.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$28.56+28.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 10.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.0%; bull = 8.5% and 12.0%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BCS would need a return on equity of about 8% a year; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BCS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.62
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.66
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.57
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $25.28, 13% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 8.4× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 0.8×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.1% ($1.7B paid over 12 months, 17% of earnings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 22% in the last fiscal year, above the 17% median for the 137 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 9.6%, below the 13% median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.62 vs the S&P 500 and 31% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Barclays in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Commercial Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 8.4 · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.4×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: SEC data tags only part of this bank's revenue, and net interest income and noninterest income aren't both tagged
- Price / book
- 0.78×
- Market cap
- $81.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/aSEC data tags only part of this bank's revenue, and net interest income and noninterest income aren't both tagged
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: SEC data tags only part of this bank's revenue, and net interest income and noninterest income aren't both tagged
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: SEC data tags only part of this bank's revenue, and net interest income and noninterest income aren't both tagged
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.42
- EPS growth, last FY
- +21.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $9.6B
- Net income growth
- +14%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: SEC data tags only part of this bank's revenue, and net interest income and noninterest income aren't both tagged
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $345B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $22.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +205%
- Dividend yield
- 2.07%$1.7B paid
- Payout ratio
- 17%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $7.6B9.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Barclays’s SEC filings, reported in GBP and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $25.28
Financials model (residual income): book value $24.32 a share on Jun 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), converted from GBP at 1.344, 4 shares per ADR, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 10.0%, the average of 10.6% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 9.3% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 97% of earnings (dividends 18% + net buybacks 79%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 6-K filed Jul 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days +2.6%
The business
FCF $-11.7B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$11.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield−15.1%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
BCS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.