QualityDipStocks / Finance · Commercial Banks
NatWest Group plc) NWG
On dip watch: 20% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $17.90+16%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.46
5 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $15.47
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$13.89−10.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$15.47you are here
- Fair value est.base case$17.90+15.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$19.42+25.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 11.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.9%; bull = 8.5% and 13.9%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, NWG would need a return on equity of about 10% a year; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NWG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.46
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.57
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.47
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $17.90, 16% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 8.0× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.1% ($3.2B paid over 12 months, 41% of earnings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 3% over the last 12 months, from 22% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on NatWest Group plc) in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Commercial Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 8.0 · ROE 14% · Sales +3%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.0×Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 1.55×
- Price / book
- 1.10×
- Market cap
- $62.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $40.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.67
- EPS growth, last FY
- +26.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $7.8B
- Net income growth
- +21%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 19.3%
- FCF margin
- 21.2%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $128B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $8.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +390%
- Dividend yield
- 5.08%$3.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 41%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $778M1.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From NatWest Group plc)’s SEC filings, reported in GBP and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $17.90
Financials model (residual income): book value $14.09 a share on Dec 31, 2025, converted from GBP at 1.344, 2 shares per ADR, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 11.9%, the average of 13.4% for the fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025 and 10.5% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 54% of earnings (dividends 43% + net buybacks 11%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 20-F filed Feb 17, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 28 · 5 days −7.9%
The business
FCF $5.9B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.7%
- Return on equity15%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when NWG fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on NWG or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.