QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Bowhead Specialty BOW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $23.92−30%
- Market Value
- $33.72price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.03
52-week range 97% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $33.95Fair value est. $23.92Market Value $33.72
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 1% below its 52-week high (Oct 27), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue +4.5%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue +4.5%), others slipped. The price is 1% below its 52-week high.
The price is 1% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 18.5×; 52-wk low: P/E 13.4×; now: P/E 18.7×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $34.29Oct 27 | $21.44Mar 19 | $33.95 |
| P/E | 18.5× | 13.4× | 18.7× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 12.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.9%; bull = 8.5% and 14.9%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BOW would need a return on equity of about 16% a year; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BOW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.03
- Volatility
- 34% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.09
How it ranks
Where BOW stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate30% · price above our base caseLowest 26%of 1,507
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+24% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 21%of 2,184
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $23.92 · MV $33.72
Financials model (residual income): book value $15.04 a share on Sep 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 12.9%, the average of 13.0% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 12.8% over fiscal 2023–2025, on average common equity; payout 0% of earnings (dividends 0%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Nov 3, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales compounded 43% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 24% to $643M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 23% to $1.59 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 14%, above the 12% median for the 363 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $23.92, 30% below the price.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 9.3%, below the 22% median for the 350 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 18.7×, above the 13.3× median for the 364 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.5×, above the 1.6× median for the 368 Finance companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $0.51): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 18.7 · ROE 14% · Sales +24%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.7×Finance median 13.3×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.74×
- Price / book
- 2.48×
- Market cap
- $1.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $643M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +23.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +43.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- +23.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $60M
- Net income growth
- +14%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 9.3%
- FCF margin
- 63.2%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $232M
- Total debt
- $147M
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $407M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +24%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $12M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Bowhead Specialty’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
Sales +23%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+23%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $33.95
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$21.44−36.8%
- Fair value est.base case$23.92−29.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 3$33.72−0.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$33.95you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$34.29+1.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days −0.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.51
- Year-ago EPS$0.47
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
BOW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Bowhead Specialty in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.