QualityDipStocks / Finance · Property-Casualty Insurers
Safety Insurance Group SAFT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $53.02−49%
- Market Value
- $103.63price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.16
52-week range at its 52-week high
Price $104.24Fair value est. $53.02Market Value $103.63
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 22.2×; 52-wk low: P/E 15.8×; now: P/E 22.4×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $104.26Oct 27 | $68.20Jun 3 | $104.24 |
| P/E | 22.2× | 15.8× | 22.4× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 7.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.9%; bull = 8.5% and 9.9%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SAFT would need a return on equity of about 17% a year; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SAFT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.16
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.04
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.14
How it ranks
Where SAFT stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate49% · price above our base caseLowest 13%of 1,507
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 39%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 40%of 2,184
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $53.02 · MV $103.63
Financials model (residual income): book value $61.68 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 7.9%, the average of 7.5% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 8.3% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 79% of earnings (dividends 79%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 40% to $6.70 in FY2025.
GrowthSales compounded 17% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.5% ($54M paid over 12 months, 79% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $53.02, 49% below the price.
GrowthSales growth slowed to 7% over the last 12 months, from 17% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 8% over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 22.4×, above the 13.3× median for the 364 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityNet margin of 5.3%, below the 22% median for the 350 Finance companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 22.4 · ROE 8% · Sales +7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.4×Finance median 13.3×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for an insurer
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Price / sales
- 1.19×
- Price / book
- 1.75×
- Market cap
- $1.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.65
- EPS growth, last FY
- +40.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $68M
- Net income growth
- −19%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 5.3%
- FCF margin
- 13.7%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $68M
- Total debt
- $50M
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for an insurer
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for an insurer
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $176M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +11%
- Dividend yield
- 3.53%$54M paid
- Payout ratio
- 79%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $5M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Safety Insurance Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.7%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $104.24
- Fair value est.base case$53.02−49.1%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$68.20−34.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$103.63−0.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$104.24you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$104.26at the price
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days +0.2%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
SAFT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Safety Insurance Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Property-Casualty Insurers
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.