QualityDipStocks / Energy · Integrated oil
BP p.l.c. BP
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $67.35+34%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −2%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.46
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $50.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$33.31−33.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$50.39you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$51.32+1.8%
- Fair value est.base case$67.35+33.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BP’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.46
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.21
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.4% (price / FCF 11.9×): $11.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet cash of $33.2B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 3.3×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 41%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 22 points in two fiscal years, to 0% in FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 2.5× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 6.6% in FY2025 from 12.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 8% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on BP p.l.c. in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Integrated oil
All fundamentals
FCF yield 8.4% · ROE 0% · Sales −1%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/an/m: earnings near zero (P/E above 300)
- Price / FCF
- 11.9×
- FCF yield
- 8.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.3×
- Price / sales
- 0.69×
- Price / book
- 2.52×
- Market cap
- $134Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $100B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $193B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −8.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $55M
- Net income growth
- −86%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 6.6%
- Net margin
- 0.0%
- FCF margin
- 5.9%
- Return on equity
- 0%
- Return on invested capital
- 41%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $36.6B
- Total debt
- $3.4B
- Net cash
- $33.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.06×
- Interest coverage
- 2.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $11.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −6%
- Dividend yield
- 4.20%$5.6B paid
- Payout ratio
- n/an/m
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $4.5B3.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From BP p.l.c.’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $67.35 · FCF value $154.27
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -8.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.25 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, 6 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Mar 6, 2026. Net debt $24.8B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 63 · 5 days −1.8%
The business
FCF $16.1B · Sales +48%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$16.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield12.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+48%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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