QualityDipStocks / Energy · Integrated oil
Phillips 66 PSX
Not in a dip by our rules: 5% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $490.85+74%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.37
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $282.83
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$127.75−54.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$282.83you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$297.29+5.1%
- Fair value est.base case$490.85+73.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PSX’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PSX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.37
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.15
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.17
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 116% to $10.79 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 9.0× is 38% below its own average of 14.5× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $490.85, 74% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 9.0× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 27% to $168B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 8% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 8 points in two fiscal years, to 15% in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.5×, above the 0.3× median for the 36 Energy companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 15%, below the 35% median for the 17 Energy companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Phillips 66 in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Integrated oil
All fundamentals
P/E 9.0 · ROE 41% · Sales +27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 9.0×3-yr-end avg 14.5× · Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.67×
- Price / book
- 3.29×
- Market cap
- $113Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $124B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $168B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +27.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −8.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $31.18
- EPS growth, last FY
- +116.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $12.6B
- Net income growth
- n/an/m: earnings a year ago near zero
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 15.1%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 7.5%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 41%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $5.8B
- Total debt
- $17.5B
- Net cash
- −$11.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.51×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.78%$2.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3.2B2.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Phillips 66’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $490.85 · FCF value $819.07
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -8.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $30.98 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Capex: capital expenditures and investments (company tag).
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days −0.1%
The business
FCF $12.4B · Sales +46%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$12.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield11.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin14%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital19%
- Return on equity42%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+46%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when PSX fires a reversal signal
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