QualityDipStocks / Energy · Integrated oil
Marathon Petroleum MPC
Not in a dip by our rules: 8% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 12% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $704.83+58%
- Market Value
- $397.45price +12%
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.28
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $444.73
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$162.63−63.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$397.45−10.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$444.73you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$484.92+9.0%
- Fair value est.base case$704.83+58.5%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MPC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MPC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.28
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.09
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.0% (price / FCF 10.0×): $12.9B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $704.83, 58% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 254% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 48% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 5.5% in a year: $4.9B of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 16 points in two fiscal years, to 23% in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 15.1× is 40% above its own average of 10.8× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthSales shrank 9% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 11.9% above its Market Value of $397.45, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Marathon Petroleum in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Integrated oil
All fundamentals
P/E 15.1 · FCF yield 10.0% · ROE 48%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.1×3-yr-end avg 10.8× · Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- 10.0×
- FCF yield
- 10.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.8×
- Price / sales
- 0.84×
- Price / book
- 6.76×
- Market cap
- $129Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $154B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $154B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −9.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $28.84
- EPS growth, last FY
- +31.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $8.5B
- Net income growth
- +301%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 12.5%
- Operating margin
- 9.2%
- Net margin
- 5.6%
- FCF margin
- 8.4%
- Return on equity
- 48%
- Return on invested capital
- 26%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $7.8B
- Total debt
- $32.8B
- Net cash
- −$25.0B
- Debt / equity
- 1.72×
- Interest coverage
- 8.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $12.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +254%
- Dividend yield
- 0.90%$1.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 14%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $4.9B3.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Marathon Petroleum’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $704.83 · MV $397.45 · FCF value $1,180
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -9.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $44.48 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 51 · 5 days −2.7%
The business
FCF $12.9B · Sales +54%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$12.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield10.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin10%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity49%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+54%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$25.74
- Year-ago EPS$3.01
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MPC fires a reversal signal
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