QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Black Stone Minerals L.P. Common units representing limited partner interests BSM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 5% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Operating margin 64%, top 1% of the 1288 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $22.28+51%
- Market Value
- $14.69at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −5%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.26
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 5% below its 52-week high (Mar 5), but the business held up: free cash flow +3.3%.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +3.3%), others slipped (revenue −2.2%, revenue growth rate −3.3 pts). The price is 5% below its 52-week high.
The price is 5% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −2.2%, revenue growth rate −3.3 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BSM’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BSM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.26
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.20
How it ranks
Where BSM stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate51% · price below our base caseTop 21%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield9.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 13%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+5.1% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 29%of 1,814
- Operating margin64% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 1%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $22.28 · MV $14.69 · FCF value $11.89
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -10.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.41 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 9.5% (price / FCF 10.5×): $320M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $22.28, 51% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 64% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 24× over.
ValuationP/E of 13.2×, below the 15.9× median for the 73 Energy companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales shrank 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 65.6% in FY2025 from 71.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 5.1% over the last 12 months, below the 11% median for the 86 Energy companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
All fundamentals
P/E 13.2 · FCF yield 9.5% · Sales +5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.2×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 10.5×
- FCF yield
- 9.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 7.30×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $3.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $460M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −10.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $254M
- Net income growth
- +3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 64.3%
- Net margin
- 55.3%
- FCF margin
- 69.6%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 23.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $320M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −3%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $11M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From Black Stone Minerals L.P. Common units representing limited partner interests’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield9.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin23%
- Gross margin90%
- Operating margin95%
- Return on invested capital31%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $14.74
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$13.10−11.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$14.69−0.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$14.74you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$15.44+4.7%
- Fair value est.base case$22.28+51.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days −1.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
BSM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Black Stone Minerals L.P. Common units representing limited partner interests in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.