QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Northern Oil and Gas NOG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 16% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 5% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 6.6%, top 3% of the 1731 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $27.19price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −16%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.61
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 16% below its 52-week high (Mar 27), but the business held up.
Some numbers held up, others slipped (revenue −22.6%, revenue growth rate −36.9 pts, earnings per share turned to a loss). The price is 16% below its 52-week high.
The price is 16% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −22.6%, revenue growth rate −36.9 pts, earnings per share turned to a loss.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.5B → $1.9B (−22.6%)changed
- Revenue growth rate+11.2% → −25.6% a year (−36.9 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a losschanged
- Free cash flow, 12 months$254M → −$294M, turned negativechanged
- Operating margin9.9% → −24.1% (−34.0 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+5.4% (more shares, each owns less)changed
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−11.0% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Energy)stock −16%, sector median +1% since Mar 27about the same
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −16%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −23% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($30.82, Mar 27) the price assumed about −2%/yr free-cash-flow growth. The last 3 years delivered 16%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 16%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $30.82Mar 27 | $17.37Jul 6 | $25.80 |
| Implied growth | −2% | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 79.0× | n/a | n/a |
| P/FCF | 12.1× | — | — |
| EV/Sales | 2.2× | 2.2× | 2.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for NOG: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much NOG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.61
- Volatility
- 46% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.18
How it ranks
Where NOG stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield−11% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 3%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield8.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 9%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−26% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 1%of 1,814
- Operating margin−24% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 3%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−7.8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 3%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $27.19
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 6.6% ($179M paid over 12 months).
GrowthSales compounded 16% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.4×, below the 1.8× median for the 74 Energy companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 5.1% below its Market Value of $27.19, the average price paid since the Oct 13 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$294M over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 9.9% in FY2025 from 51.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -2.7× over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 92% to $0.39 in FY2025.
GrowthSales fell 26% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
All fundamentals
FCF yield -10.9% · ROE -22% · Sales −26%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −10.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.41×
- Price / book
- 1.35×
- Market cap
- $2.7Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $5.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −25.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +16.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$4.80
- EPS growth, last FY
- −92.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$486M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 74.2%
- Operating margin
- −24.1%
- Net margin
- −25.4%
- FCF margin
- −15.3%
- Return on equity
- −22%
- Return on invested capital
- −8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $48M
- Total debt
- $2.7B
- Net cash
- −$2.7B
- Debt / equity
- 1.37×
- Interest coverage
- -2.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$294M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 6.64%$179M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $57M2.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +8.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $16M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Northern Oil and Gas’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-0.5B · Sales +16%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield-10.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin−23%
- Gross margin75%
- Operating margin57%
- Return on invested capital19%
- Return on equity−22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+16%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $25.80
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.37−32.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$25.80you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 13$27.19+5.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$30.82+19.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days −9.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.92
- Year-ago EPS$1.03
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
NOG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Northern Oil and Gas in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.