QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical/Nursing Services
BrightSpring Health Services BTSG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $68.98+3%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.13
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $66.89
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$31.36−53.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$66.89you are here
- Fair value est.base case$68.98+3.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$72.91+9.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BTSG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BTSG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.5× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.13
- Volatility
- 45% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.32
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 36% to $15.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 78% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales compounded 19% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $2.5B at FY2025, 25% less than at FY2023.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 21% over the last 12 months, up 37 points in two years.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 11.8% in FY2025 from 14.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.0×, above the 0.7× median for the 67 Health Care companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 1.0% over 12 months, above the −1.0% median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 23.9×, above the 17.0× median for the 55 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on BrightSpring Health Services in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Health Care
All fundamentals
P/E 35.9 · FCF yield 3.3% · ROE 21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 35.9×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 29.9×
- FCF yield
- 3.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 23.9×
- Price / sales
- 0.97×
- Price / book
- 6.77×
- Market cap
- $14.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $16.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $15.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +35.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +18.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.86
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $410M
- Net income growth
- +217%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 12.5%
- Operating margin
- 3.4%
- Net margin
- 2.7%
- FCF margin
- 3.2%
- Return on equity
- 21%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $718M
- Total debt
- $2.2B
- Net cash
- −$1.5B
- Debt / equity
- 1.00×
- Interest coverage
- 3.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $492M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +78%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $55M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From BrightSpring Health Services’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $68.98 · FCF value $68.86
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 18.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.24 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $1.5B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +11.3%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.1%
- Gross margin12%
- Operating margin4%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
BTSG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.