QualityDipStocks / Health Care · Medical/Nursing Services
Chemed CHE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $417.89−22%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.02
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $534.72
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$368.59−31.1%
- Fair value est.base case$417.89−21.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$534.72you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$552.72+3.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.8%; bull = 8.5% and 7.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CHE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CHE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.02
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 8.8% in a year: $525M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 29% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 26%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 75× over.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $417.89, 22% below the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 7.8% in the last fiscal year, below the 7.3% median for the 74 Health Care companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 34%, below the 65% median for the 81 Health Care companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 5.2% over the last 12 months, below the 8.6% median for the 101 Health Care companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 8.2×, above the 5.2× median for the 93 Health Care companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Chemed in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Health Care
All fundamentals
P/E 24.9 · FCF yield 4.2% · ROE 29%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.9×Health Care median 29.2×
- Price / FCF
- 23.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.4×
- Price / sales
- 2.64×
- Price / book
- 8.15×
- Market cap
- $7.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $20.88
- EPS growth, last FY
- −7.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $282M
- Net income growth
- +1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 33.5%
- Operating margin
- 13.9%
- Net margin
- 10.6%
- FCF margin
- 11.1%
- Return on equity
- 29%
- Return on invested capital
- 26%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $48M
- Total debt
- $236M
- Net cash
- −$188M
- Debt / equity
- 0.27×
- Interest coverage
- 75.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $295M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −18%
- Dividend yield
- 0.48%$34M paid
- Payout ratio
- 12%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $525M7.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Chemed’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $417.89 · FCF value $489.53
Assumes 5.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $22.49 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $188M, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 62 · 5 days +4.2%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin34%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital24%
- Return on equity29%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CHE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.