QualityDipStocks / Finance · Investment Managers
Blackstone BX
In a deep dip: 28% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $211.60+79%
- Market Value
- $118.36at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.31
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $118.51
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$102.12−13.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$118.36−0.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$118.51you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$163.50+38.0%
- Fair value est.base case$211.60+78.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, BX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.31
- Volatility
- 37% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.45
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $211.60, 79% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 26.9× is 49% below its own average of 52.9× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 67% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 41% over the last 12 months, up 14 points in two years.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 28% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $6.4B paid vs $3.5B of net income.
ValuationP/E of 26.9× vs a 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.5×, above the 0.8× median for the 22 Finance companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 2.2% over 12 months, above the −2.5% median for the 117 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Blackstone in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Investment Managers
All fundamentals
P/E 26.9 · FCF yield 5.8% · ROE 41%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.9×3-yr-end avg 52.9× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 17.3×
- FCF yield
- 5.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 5.88×
- Price / book
- 10.52×
- Market cap
- $94.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $106B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $16.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +17.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +19.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.47
- EPS growth, last FY
- +6.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $3.5B
- Net income growth
- +23%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 21.8%
- FCF margin
- 34.1%
- Return on equity
- 41%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.5B
- Total debt
- $13.3B
- Net cash
- −$10.8B
- Debt / equity
- 1.48×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +67%
- Dividend yield
- 6.74%$6.4B paid
- Payout ratio
- 181%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.6B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Blackstone’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $211.60 · MV $118.36
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 19.3% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.86 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026. Net debt $10.8B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 53 · 5 days +0.5%
The business
FCF $3.3B · Sales +32%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.6%
- Return on equity42%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+32%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when BX fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on BX or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.