QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Telecommunications Equipment
Calix CALX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 47% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 49% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 28%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $22.92−37%
- Market Value
- $36.50price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −47%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.96
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 47% below its 52-week high (Oct 31), but the business held up: revenue +19.0%, revenue growth rate +22.9 pts, earnings per share turned to a profit.
Some numbers held up (revenue +19.0%, revenue growth rate +22.9 pts, earnings per share turned to a profit), others slipped. The price is 47% below its 52-week high.
The price is 47% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$934M → $1.1B (+19.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+4.9% → +27.8% a year (+22.9 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a profitheld up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$85M → $85M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin−0.8% → 5.5% (+6.3 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−6.1% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −47%, sector median +13% since Oct 31changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −47%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +9% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 55.9× at the high → 27.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 27, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 27, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($68.42, Oct 31) the price assumed about 26%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($33.14, Sep 25) about 11%; today about 13%. The last 3 years delivered 107%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 107%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $68.42Oct 31 | $33.14Sep 25 | $36.13 |
| Implied growth | +26% | +11% | +13% |
| P/E | n/a | 42.4× | 46.2× |
| P/FCF | 55.9× | 25.4× | 27.7× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.8%; bull = 8.5% and 6.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CALX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CALX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.96
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.24
How it ranks
Where CALX stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate37% · price above our base caseLowest 22%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.6% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 46%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield11% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 5%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+28% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 17%of 1,814
- Operating margin5.5% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 28%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $22.92 · MV $36.50 · FCF value $23.56
Assumes 4.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.8% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.30 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 21, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 28% to $1.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 56.8% in FY2025 from 49.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 19% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $22.92, 37% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 46.2× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 7% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count up 1.5% over 12 months, above the −1.7% median for the 310 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 5.5%, below the 11% median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 46.2 · FCF yield 3.6% · ROE 7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 46.2×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 27.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.13×
- Price / book
- 3.33×
- Market cap
- $2.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +27.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.76
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $51M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 56.6%
- Operating margin
- 5.5%
- Net margin
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- 7.7%
- Return on equity
- 7%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $194M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $85M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +19%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $260M11.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $80M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 27, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 27, 2026. From Calix’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +21%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+21%
- Net debt / EBITDA−2.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $36.13
- Fair value est.base case$22.92−36.6%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$33.14−8.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$36.13you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Jul 20$36.50+1.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$68.42+89.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days −4.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CALX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Calix in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Telecommunications Equipment
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.