QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Entertainment & recreation
StubHub STUB
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 69% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 4% over its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Net cash = 13% of its market cap
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $5.83price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −69%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.50
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($5.30, Sep 28) about −25%; today about −23%. The last 3 years delivered 13%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 13%/yr (revenue)
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $5.30Sep 28 | $6.04 |
| Implied growth | −25% | −23% |
| P/FCF | 3.2× | 3.6× |
| EV/Sales | 0.9× | 1.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for STUB: the model gives 665% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, STUB’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 23% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much STUB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.50
- Volatility
- 74% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.26
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.20
How it ranks
Where STUB stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield28% · free cash flow vs market capTop 1%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield0% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 19%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7.9% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 42%of 1,814
- Operating margin−70% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 1%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−80% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 1%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $5.83 · FCF value $41.36
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 27.7% (price / FCF 3.6×): $634M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet cash of $297M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales compounded 13% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.4×, below the 3.2× median for the 336 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −77.0% in FY2025 from 18.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -14.5× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $1.8B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 208 points in two fiscal years, to -168% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 27.7% · ROE -153% · Sales +8%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 3.6×
- FCF yield
- 27.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 1.18×
- Price / book
- 1.41×
- Market cap
- $2.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +13.0%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$5.84
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$1.8B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −69.7%
- Net margin
- −95.4%
- FCF margin
- 32.7%
- Return on equity
- −153%
- Return on invested capital
- −80%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- $1.4B
- Net cash
- $297M
- Debt / equity
- 0.86×
- Interest coverage
- -14.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $634M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5,0000.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +24.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $1.5B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From StubHub’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +33%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield27.7%
- Gross margin82%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity−103%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+33%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $6.04
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$5.30−12.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 14$5.83−3.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$6.04you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$19.44+221.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 54 · 5 days +7.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.11
- Year-ago EPS($0.60)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
STUB is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on StubHub in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.