QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Carrier Global CARR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 29% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $60.55+13%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −29%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.28
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $53.63
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$50.36−6.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$53.63you are here
- Fair value est.base case$60.55+12.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$76.00+41.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.9%; bull = 8.5% and 9.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CARR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CARR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.28
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.47
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.40
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $60.55, 13% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 111% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 4.3% in a year: $1.6B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.4% (price / FCF 18.5×): $2.4B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 1.8%, above the 1.1% median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 72% to $1.72 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityLost $1.8B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −5% operating margin over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 3.3% over the last 12 months, below the 9.3% median for the 147 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 37.3× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Carrier Global in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
FCF yield 5.4% · Sales +3%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 18.5×
- FCF yield
- 5.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.93×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $44.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $22.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +3.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$2.17
- EPS growth, last FY
- −72.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$1.8B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −4.8%
- Net margin
- −7.9%
- FCF margin
- 10.4%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +111%
- Dividend yield
- 1.79%$787M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.6B3.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $59M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026. From Carrier Global’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $60.55 · FCF value $69.67
Assumes 7.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.89 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $10.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 37 · 5 days −4.6%
The business
FCF $2.4B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin25%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity−14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA37.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CARR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.