QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Industrial machinery
Garmin GRMN
Not in a dip by our rules: 13% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $224.40−18%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −13%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.90
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $272.67
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$187.10−31.4%
- Fair value est.base case$224.40−17.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$272.67you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$313.16+14.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.2% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.2%; bull = 8.5% and 16.2% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GRMN’s free cash flow would need to grow about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GRMN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.90
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 25.9% in FY2025 from 20.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 22% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 14% to $7.9B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 18% to $8.59 in FY2025.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $224.40, 18% below the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 2.8%, below the 3.5% median for the 144 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.0% over 12 months, above the −0.8% median for the 137 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 5.5×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Garmin in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 26.2 · FCF yield 2.8% · ROE 22%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.2×3-yr-end avg 23.9× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 36.0×
- FCF yield
- 2.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.69×
- Price / book
- 5.53×
- Market cap
- $52.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +13.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.41
- EPS growth, last FY
- +17.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.0B
- Net income growth
- +28%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 61.1%
- Operating margin
- 28.8%
- Net margin
- 25.6%
- FCF margin
- 18.6%
- Return on equity
- 22%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +10%
- Dividend yield
- 1.42%$751M paid
- Payout ratio
- 37%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $175M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Garmin’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $224.40 · FCF value $185.91
Assumes 14.2% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.2% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.58 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days −7.2%
The business
FCF $1.5B · Sales +12%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin61%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital19%
- Return on equity22%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+12%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when GRMN fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on GRMN or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.