QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Specialty distribution
CDW CDW
Not in a dip by our rules: 7% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $106.99−30%
- Market Value
- $147.72price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.79
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $153.79
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$99.30−35.4%
- Fair value est.base case$106.99−30.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 21$147.72−3.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$153.79you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$165.20+7.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CDW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 9% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CDW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.79
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 18.1× is 18% below its own average of 22.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 44% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.8% in a year: $848M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 16%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $106.99, 30% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 13 points in two fiscal years, to 41% in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt is 2.4× shareholders’ equity.
GrowthSales fell 1.9% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $2.77): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on CDW in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty distribution
All fundamentals
P/E 18.1 · FCF yield 4.4% · ROE 44%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.1×3-yr-end avg 22.3× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 22.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.7×
- Price / sales
- 0.83×
- Price / book
- 8.02×
- Market cap
- $19.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $25.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $23.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −1.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.32
- EPS growth, last FY
- +1.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- +0%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 21.4%
- Operating margin
- 7.1%
- Net margin
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- 3.7%
- Return on equity
- 44%
- Return on invested capital
- 16%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $362M
- Total debt
- $5.8B
- Net cash
- −$5.5B
- Debt / equity
- 2.38×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $860M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −16%
- Dividend yield
- 1.66%$324M paid
- Payout ratio
- 30%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $848M4.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $90M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From CDW’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $106.99 · MV $147.72 · FCF value $159.73
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -1.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.75 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $5.5B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −6.9%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin21%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital16%
- Return on equity43%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.8×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.77
- Year-ago EPS$2.55
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CDW fires a reversal signal
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