QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Specialty distribution
Chewy CHWY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 40% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $28.41+33%
- Market Value
- $20.01price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −40%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.72
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $21.29
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$17.51−17.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 9$20.01−6.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$21.29you are here
- Fair value est.base case$28.41+33.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$35.37+66.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.6%; bull = 8.5% and 9.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CHWY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CHWY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.72
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $28.41, 33% above the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 72%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 72% over the last 12 months, up 37 points in two years.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.5% (price / FCF 15.4×): $568M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 4.3% in a year: $510M of buybacks over 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 43% to $0.52 in FY2026.
ValuationP/E of 31.9× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 18.5×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 23.6×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 6.4% above its Market Value of $20.01, the average price paid since the Sep 9 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Chewy in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty distribution
All fundamentals
P/E 31.9 · FCF yield 6.5% · ROE 72%
Valuation
- P/E
- 31.9×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 15.4×
- FCF yield
- 6.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 18.5×
- Price / sales
- 0.67×
- Price / book
- 23.57×
- Market cap
- $8.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.65
- EPS growth, last FY
- −42.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $274M
- Net income growth
- +81%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 29.9%
- Operating margin
- 2.5%
- Net margin
- 2.1%
- FCF margin
- 4.3%
- Return on equity
- 72%
- Return on invested capital
- 72%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $612M
- Total debt
- $592M
- Net cash
- $20M
- Debt / equity
- 1.60×
- Interest coverage
- 28.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $568M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +23%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $510M5.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $298M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 2, 2026. From Chewy’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $28.41 · MV $20.01 · FCF value $28.51
Assumes 7.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.6% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.39 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 2, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 9, 2026. Net cash $20M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 55 · 5 days −2.9%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin3%
- Gross margin30%
- Operating margin2%
- Return on equity72%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CHWY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.