QualityDipCC
Chris CamilloOct 30 · Post
bullish“Added aggressively to $AMZN last night while deleveraging everywhere else.”
Stocks / Consumer Discretionary · Specialty distribution
AMZN
Amazon AMZN
$240.35−1.41% dayFri Oct 30 close
On dip watch: 15% below its 52-week high.
A quality company. No fair value estimate for now: its free cash flow is negative.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −15%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.47
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Drag across the chart to see any day
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $240.35
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$198.79−17.3%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$240.35you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$284.02+18.2%
Fair value estimate
No estimate for AMZN: negative free cash flow. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much AMZN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Above market
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.47
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.54
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.49
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 19.5× is 53% below its own average of 41.4× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 30% to $7.17 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 11.2% in FY2025 from 6.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 27% over the last 12 months, up 4 points in two years.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree cash flow is negative (−$46.9B over the last 12 months), so there’s no cash-flow value under the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of −1.8%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.8% over 12 months, above the −1.8% median for the 160 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 12%, below the 16% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
VoicesCathie Wood (Oct 21): “ARK bought 52,600 shares (Oct 2–Oct 6) and sold 30,544 shares (Oct 15–Oct 21) across ARKK,ARKQ,ARKW,ARKX, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.” ARK daily trades (arkfunds.io)
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Amazon in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
Jim CramerCNBC Mad MoneyAnalyst
Amazon Stock Fell After Earnings. Jim Cramer Says Buy Right Here24/7 Wall St. ·
Andy JassyCEO, AmazonCompany
Andy Jassy Says Robots Will Replace Many Repetitive Warehouse Jobs — Amazon Already Has Over 1 Million Machines, and the Impact Could Be Much Bigger in Five YearsYahoo Finance ·
Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET. Matched by name against a maintained list plus the company’s own executives. Information only, not advice.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Specialty distribution
All fundamentals
P/E 19.5 · FCF yield -1.8% · ROE 27%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.5×3-yr-end avg 41.4× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/anegative free cash flow
- FCF yield
- −1.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 14.7×
- Price / sales
- 3.29×
- Price / book
- 4.28×
- Market cap
- $2.63Tprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.69T
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $797B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $12.37
- EPS growth, last FY
- +29.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $135B
- Net income growth
- +76%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 51.4%
- Operating margin
- 13.1%
- Net margin
- 16.9%
- FCF margin
- −5.9%
- Return on equity
- 27%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $114B
- Total debt
- $181B
- Net cash
- −$67.0B
- Debt / equity
- 0.30×
- Interest coverage
- 23.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$46.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $19.9B
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Amazon’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $240.35
Market ValueAverage paid since the Oct 29 filing, 1 trading days; fresh, still pricing in
$240.35price 0%
Fair value estimaten/a — negative free cash flow
n/a
FCF valueTrailing free cash flow is negative
n/a
How we got these
- Market Value: volume-weighted average close from Oct 30 (first full trading day after the filing) to Oct 30, 1 trading days. Simple average $240.35. Event: SEC 8-K Item 2.02 (earnings), filed Oct 29, 4:05 PM ET. Read the filing.
- Free cash flow, 12 months to Sep 30: $168.3B operating cash flow − $215.2B capex = -$46.9B, or $-4.29 a share on 10.93B diluted shares.
- DCF: free cash flow per share grows 12% a year for five years, from its FY2022–FY2025 revenue growth of 12% a year, fading to 3% by year ten; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth.
- FCF value: free cash flow per share ÷ 4%, the price at which the stock yields 4% in free cash flow.
- Free cash flow is negative over the last 12 months (capex $215B vs operating cash flow $168B), so cash-flow models give no value.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days −3.1%
$240.35nowMV
52-wk low $198.79high $284.02
Off 52-wk high−15.4%
5 days−3.1%
vs 50-day avg−5.5%
vs 200-day avg−1.3%
RSI (14)38
Market cap$2.63T
The business
FCF $-46.9B · Sales +17%
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$46.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield−1.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin−6%
- Gross margin51%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity36%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+17%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.4×
Investor buzz
3 from investors
Their view, not ours, and not advice. All buzz
CW
Cathie Wood (ARK Invest)Oct 21 · Fund trade
bearishARK bought 52,600 shares (Oct 2–Oct 6) and sold 30,544 shares (Oct 15–Oct 21) across ARKK,ARKQ,ARKW,ARKX, per ARK's daily trade disclosures.
SD
Stanley DruckenmillerAug 14 · 13F filing
bullish13F: raised stake about 12x, Q2 2026 (45,800 → 541,600 shares, now 3.0% of the 13F portfolio). Quarterly filing, positions as of 2026-06-30.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when AMZN fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on AMZN or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.