QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Certara CERT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 22% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $10.72at the price
- Market Value
- $8.79price +22%
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.77
52-week range 86% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $10.71Fair value est. $10.72Market Value $8.79
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 8% below its 52-week high (Nov 3), but the business held up: shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.5% of market cap since the high, revenue +3.9%.
Some numbers held up (shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, net cash (cash minus debt) +1.5% of market cap since the high, revenue +3.9%), others slipped (earnings per share turned to a loss, operating margin −5.7 pts, free cash flow −20.0%). The price is 8% below its 52-week high.
The price is 8% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share turned to a loss, operating margin −5.7 pts, free cash flow −20.0%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($11.70, Nov 3) the price assumed about 6%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($4.48, May 15) about −9%; today about 8%. The last 3 years delivered 1%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 1%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.70Nov 3 | $4.48May 15 | $10.71 |
| Implied growth | +6% | −9% | +8% |
| P/E | 235.9× | n/a | n/a |
| P/FCF | 18.7× | 8.0× | 20.6× |
| EV/Sales | 5.0× | 2.0× | 4.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.7%; bull = 8.5% and 9.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CERT’s free cash flow would need to grow about 8% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CERT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 4.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.77
- Volatility
- 60% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.16
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.11
How it ranks
Where CERT stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate0% · price below our base caseTop 46%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield4.9% · free cash flow vs market capTop 42%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.5% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 30%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+11% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 44%of 2,184
- Operating margin0.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 16%of 1,549
- Return on invested capital0.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 12%of 1,001
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $10.72 · MV $8.79 · FCF value $10.04
Assumes 7.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.52 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026. Net debt $108M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 5.0% in FY2025 from −11.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 4.6% in a year: $75M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.9% (price / FCF 20.6×): $80M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 11% to $422M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.1× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $68M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 0%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationTrades 21.9% above its Market Value of $8.79, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 4.9% · ROE -7% · Sales +11%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 20.6×
- FCF yield
- 4.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.3×
- Price / sales
- 3.92×
- Price / book
- 1.71×
- Market cap
- $1.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $422M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.44
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$68M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 0.6%
- Net margin
- −16.2%
- FCF margin
- 19.1%
- Return on equity
- −7%
- Return on invested capital
- 0%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $184M
- Total debt
- $292M
- Net cash
- −$108M
- Debt / equity
- 0.30×
- Interest coverage
- 0.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $80M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −20%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $75M4.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $31M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Certara’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin15%
- Gross margin62%
- Operating margin0%
- Return on invested capital0%
- Return on equity−2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+1%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $10.71
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.48−58.2%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$8.79−17.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$10.71you are here
- Fair value est.base case$10.72+0.1%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$11.70+9.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 61 · 5 days +0.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.05
- Year-ago EPS$0.09
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
CERT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Certara in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.