QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Exzeo Group XZO
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 25% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 22%
- Operating margin 49%, top 3% of the 1549 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $28.51+56%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.44
52-week range 49% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $18.27Fair value est. $28.51
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, XZO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Nov 6 to Nov 2, 248 sessions). Beta = how much XZO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.44
- Volatility
- 61% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.30
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.18
How it ranks
Where XZO stands vs every one of the 2,467 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate56% · price below our base caseTop 20%of 1,507
- Free cash flow yield5.1% · free cash flow vs market capTop 40%of 1,690
- Dividends + buybacks yield0.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 30%of 2,227
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+22% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 23%of 2,184
- Operating margin49% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 3%of 1,549
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $28.51 · FCF value $19.98
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 56.7% a year FY23–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.92 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 7, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $28.51, 56% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 125% to $0.99 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 60.4% in FY2025 from 19.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 48.8% in FY2025 from 2.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 57% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsShare count up 12.0% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
ValuationPrice / book of 5.6×, above the 5.0× median for the 312 Technology companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.24): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 18.4 · FCF yield 5.1% · ROE 30%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.4×Technology median 33.2×
- Price / FCF
- 19.8×
- FCF yield
- 5.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 7.27×
- Price / book
- 5.59×
- Market cap
- $1.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $222M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +21.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +56.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.99
- EPS growth, last FY
- +125.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $88M
- Net income growth
- +60%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 62.3%
- Operating margin
- 48.5%
- Net margin
- 39.5%
- FCF margin
- 36.8%
- Return on equity
- 30%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $137M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $82M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $12M0.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +12.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $3M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Exzeo Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin30%
- Gross margin100%
- Operating margin52%
- Return on invested capital60%
- Return on equity50%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA−1.1×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $18.27
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.55−31.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$18.27you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$24.25+32.7%
- Fair value est.base case$28.51+56.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
5 days +11.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.24
- Year-ago EPS$0.25
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
XZO is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Exzeo Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.