QualityDipStocks / Finance · Brokers & investment banks
CME Group CME
Not in a dip by our rules: 7% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $269.75−11%
- Market Value
- $300.90price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −7%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.38
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $303.14
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$218.58−27.9%
- Fair value est.base case$269.75−11.0%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$300.90−0.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$303.14you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$326.46+7.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.1%; bull = 8.5% and 11.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CME’s free cash flow would need to grow about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CME moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.38
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.31
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.8% ($4.1B paid over 12 months, 93% of earnings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 64.9% in FY2025 from 61.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 16% over the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 15% to $11.16 in FY2025.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $269.75, 11% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 24.7×, above the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividends take 93% of earnings ($4.1B paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
ValuationPrice / book of 4.1×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 4.0%, below the 4.6% median for the 30 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on CME Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Brokers & investment banks
All fundamentals
P/E 24.7 · FCF yield 4.0% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 24.7×3-yr-end avg 24.1× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 25.1×
- FCF yield
- 4.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 15.59×
- Price / book
- 4.09×
- Market cap
- $109Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $12.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- +15.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.4B
- Net income growth
- +18%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 65.7%
- Net margin
- 63.1%
- FCF margin
- 62.1%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 26.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $4.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +6%
- Dividend yield
- 3.76%$4.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 93%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $100M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From CME Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $269.75 · MV $300.90
Assumes 9.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $12.08 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 23, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 65 · 5 days −0.8%
The business
FCF $4.3B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.1%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CME fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on CME or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.