QualityDipStocks / Finance · Brokers & investment banks
Intercontinental Exchange ICE
Not in a dip by our rules: 4% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $213.42+26%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.11
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $168.85
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$122.91−27.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$168.85you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$175.10+3.7%
- Fair value est.base case$213.42+26.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.5%; bull = 8.5% and 11.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ICE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ICE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.11
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.13
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $213.42, 26% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 22.8× is 24% below its own average of 30.0× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 41% over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.6% (price / FCF 18.0×): $5.3B of free cash in the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 7.9%, below the 11% median for the 18 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.2×, above the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 0.9×, above the 0.8× median for the 22 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Intercontinental Exchange in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Brokers & investment banks
All fundamentals
P/E 22.8 · FCF yield 5.6% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.8×3-yr-end avg 30.0× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- 18.0×
- FCF yield
- 5.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 16.6×
- Price / sales
- 6.77×
- Price / book
- 3.18×
- Market cap
- $95.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $120B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $14.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +12.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.34
- EPS growth, last FY
- +20.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.2B
- Net income growth
- +32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 40.6%
- Net margin
- 29.6%
- FCF margin
- 37.6%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- 8%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $936M
- Total debt
- $26.3B
- Net cash
- −$25.3B
- Debt / equity
- 0.88×
- Interest coverage
- 6.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5.3B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +17%
- Dividend yield
- 1.22%$1.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 28%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.0B2.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $285M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Intercontinental Exchange’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $213.42
Assumes 9.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.37 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $25.3B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +3.8%
The business
FCF $4.6B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$4.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.1%
- Return on equity14%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ICE fires a reversal signal
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