QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Canadian Natural Resources CNQ
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $45.02−20%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.50
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $56.11
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$30.59−45.5%
- Fair value est.base case$45.02−19.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$56.11you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$56.11at the price
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CNQ’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CNQ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.50
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.21
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.20
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 26% over the last 12 months, up 4 points in two years.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.0% ($3.5B paid over 12 months, 45% of earnings).
GrowthSales grew 9% to $27.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $166M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $45.02, 20% below the price.
GrowthSales shrank 3% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.7×, above the 2.5× median for the 42 Energy companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.05): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Canadian Natural Resources in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 15.2 · ROE 26% · Sales +9%
Valuation
- P/E
- 15.2×Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.24×
- Price / book
- 3.70×
- Market cap
- $118Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $118B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $27.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.16
- EPS growth, last FY
- +81.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $7.8B
- Net income growth
- +77%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 27.9%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $482M
- Total debt
- $316M
- Net cash
- $166M
- Debt / equity
- 0.01×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 2.97%$3.5B paid
- Payout ratio
- 45%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.0B0.9% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Canadian Natural Resources’s SEC filings, reported in CAD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $45.02 · FCF value $118.86
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.9% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.84 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CAD at 0.7168), from the 40-F filed Mar 26, 2026. Capex: net expenditures on PP&E and exploration (company tag). Net debt $11.7B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 73 · 5 days +1.9%
The business
FCF $9.7B · Sales +78%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$9.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+78%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.05
- Year-ago EPS$0.62
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CNQ fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on CNQ or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.