QualityDipStocks / Finance · Major Banks
U.S. Bancorp USB
Not in a dip by our rules: 9% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $53.79−10%
- Market Value
- $59.02price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.64
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $59.45
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$45.47−23.5%
- Fair value est.base case$53.79−9.5%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 15$59.02−0.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$59.45you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$65.42+10.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 11.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.6%; bull = 8.5% and 13.6%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, USB would need a return on equity of about 13% a year; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much USB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.64
- Volatility
- 22% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.37
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.5% ($3.2B paid over 12 months, 41% of earnings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 22% to $4.62 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 11.9×, below the 13.5× median for the 151 Finance companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 1.4×, below the 1.8× median for the 143 Finance companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales grew 6.7% over the last 12 months, below the 11% median for the 142 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 5.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.3% median for the 144 Finance companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on U.S. Bancorp in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Banks
All fundamentals
P/E 11.9 · ROE 12% · Sales +7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 11.9×3-yr-end avg 12.5× · Finance median 13.5×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a bank
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Price / sales
- 3.13×
- Price / book
- 1.37×
- Market cap
- $92.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $29.6Bnet interest income + noninterest income
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.01
- EPS growth, last FY
- +21.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $7.8B
- Net income growth
- +20%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 26.4%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $66.5B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a bank
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a bank
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 3.48%$3.2B paid
- Payout ratio
- 41%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $700M0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From U.S. Bancorp’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $53.79 · MV $59.02
Financials model (residual income): book value $43.47 a share on Jun 30, 2026 (preferred stock excluded), plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 11.6%, the average of 11.9% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 11.2% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 47% of earnings (dividends 41% + net buybacks 6%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −0.2%
The business
FCF $7.5B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$7.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.9%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when USB fires a reversal signal
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