QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Apparel
Capri CPRI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 28% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $26.42+32%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −28%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.06
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 28% below its 52-week high (Dec 4), but the business held up: earnings per share turned to a profit, free cash flow −$30M → $184M, turned positive, operating margin +18.6 pts.
Some numbers held up (earnings per share turned to a profit, free cash flow −$30M → $184M, turned positive, operating margin +18.6 pts), others slipped (revenue −22.2%, revenue growth rate −4.0 pts). The price is 28% below its 52-week high.
The price is 28% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −22.2%, revenue growth rate −4.0 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$4.4B → $3.4B (−22.2%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−0.2% → −4.2% a year (−4.0 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a profitheld up
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$30M → $184M, turned positiveheld up
- Operating margin−17.2% → 1.4% (+18.6 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−7.9% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+58.8% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −28%, sector median +9% since Dec 4changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −28%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −22% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 27, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 26, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($12.71, Sep 2) about 5%; today about −2%. The last 3 years delivered −70%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −70%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $27.66Dec 4 | $12.71Sep 2 | $20.05 |
| Implied growth | n/a | +5% | −2% |
| P/E | n/a | 9.6× | 10.6× |
| P/FCF | — | 17.8× | 12.0× |
| EV/Sales | 1.1× | 0.5× | 0.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CPRI’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CPRI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.06
- Volatility
- 49% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.28
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where CPRI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate32% · price below our base caseTop 28%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield8.3% · free cash flow vs market capTop 16%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield13% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 3%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−4.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 6%of 1,814
- Operating margin1.4% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 15%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital11% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 49%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $26.42 · FCF value $42.96
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -14.8% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.67 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $355M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $26.42, 32% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.3% (price / FCF 12.0×): $184M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 7.9% in a year: $283M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 10.6× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $371M at FY2026, 79% less than at FY2024.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt is 7.4× shareholders’ equity.
GrowthSales shrank 15% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
GrowthSales fell 4% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 1.4%, below the 11% median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 6.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 10.6 · FCF yield 8.3% · Sales −4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 12.0×
- FCF yield
- 8.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.5×
- Price / sales
- 0.65×
- Price / book
- 34.04×
- Market cap
- $2.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $2.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −4.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −14.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.77
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $208M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 63.3%
- Operating margin
- 1.4%
- Net margin
- 6.1%
- FCF margin
- 5.4%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $125M
- Total debt
- $480M
- Net cash
- −$355M
- Debt / equity
- 7.38×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $184M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $283M12.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −7.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $33M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Capri’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −6%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.3%
- Gross margin63%
- Operating margin3%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−6%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.05
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$12.71−36.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$20.05you are here
- Fair value est.base case$26.42+31.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$27.66+38.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 78 · 5 days +28.8%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CPRI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Capri in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Apparel
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.