QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Camden Property Trust CPT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $248.40+147%
- Market Value
- $99.95price +1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.09
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $100.69
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$95.80−4.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 31$99.95−0.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$100.69you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$117.58+16.8%
- Fair value est.base case$248.40+146.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CPT’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CPT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.09
- Volatility
- 19% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.11
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 136% to $3.54 in FY2025.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $248.40, 147% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsShare count down 6.4% in a year: $704M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.4% ($459M paid over 12 months).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetNet debt of $5.4B, 52% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $459M paid vs $326M of net income.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 8% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 5.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
RiskReports earnings Nov 5 (consensus EPS $1.69): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Camden Property Trust in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
All fundamentals
P/E 31.7 · ROE 8% · Sales +57%
Valuation
- P/E
- 31.7×Real Estate median 28.7×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- 2.71×
- Market cap
- $10.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $15.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- +136.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $326M
- Net income growth
- +109%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $45M
- Total debt
- $5.4B
- Net cash
- −$5.4B
- Debt / equity
- 1.43×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 4.45%$459M paid
- Payout ratio
- 141%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $704M6.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $17M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Camden Property Trust’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $248.40 · MV $99.95 · FCF value $34.89
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 35.7% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.05 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days −1.3%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales −1%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin62%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital2%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−1%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.4×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.69
- Year-ago EPS$1.70
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
CPT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.